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Journal Issue
Volume 9 Issue 2, ECEG / Dec 2011  pp93‑222

Editor: Frank Bannister

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The Role of National Culture on Citizen Adoption of eGovernment services: An Empirical Study  pp93‑106

Omar Al-Hujran, Mahmoud Al-dalahmeh, Anas Aloudat

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The use of Web 2.0 on Mexican State Websites: A Three‑Year Assessment  pp107‑121

Rodrigo Sandoval-Almazan, J. Ramon Gil-Garcia, Luis F. Luna-Reyes, Dolores E. Luna, Gabriela Diaz-Murillo

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Pan‑European Services in Slovenia  pp122‑131

Jaro Berce, Vasja Vehovar, Ana Slavec, Mirko Vintar

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Predictive Analytics in the Public Sector: Using Data Mining to Assist Better Target Selection for Audit  pp132‑140

Duncan Cleary

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Abstract

Revenue, the Irish Tax and Customs Authority, has been developing the use of data mining techniques as part of a process of putting analytics at the core of its business processes. Recent data mining projects, which have been piloted successfully, have de veloped predictive models to assist in the better targeting of taxpayers for possible non‑compliance/ tax evasion, and liquidation. The models aim, for example, to predict the likelihood of a case yielding in the event of an intervention, such as an audit . Evaluation cases have been worked in the field and the hit rate was approximately 75%. In addition, all audits completed by Revenue in the year after the models had been created were assessed using the model probability to yield score, and a significant correlation exists between the expected and actual outcome of the audits. The models are now being developed further, and are in full production in 2011. Critical factors for model success include rigorous statistical analyses, good data quality, softwar e, teamwork, timing, resources and consistent case profiling/ treatments. The models are developed using SAS Enterprise Miner and SAS Enterprise Guide. This work is a good example of the applicability of tools developed for one purpose (e.g. Credit Scori ng for Banking and Insurance) having multiple other potential applications. This paper shows how the application of advanced analytics can add value to the work of Tax and Customs authorities, by leveraging existing data in a robust and flexible way to r educe costs by better targeting cases for interventions. Analytics can thus greatly support the business to make better‑informed decisions. 

 

Keywords: tax, predictive analytics, data mining, public sector, Ireland

 

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Collaborative Network Analysis of two eGovernment Conferences: Are we Building a Community?  pp141‑151

Nusa Erman, Ljupco Todorovski

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A Multi‑Level Framework for ICT‑Enabled Governance: Assessing the Non‑Technical Dimensions of 'Government Openness'  pp152‑165

Misuraca Gianluca, Alfano, Giuseppe, Viscusi, Gianluigi

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Determinants of eGovernment Maturity in the Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe  pp166‑182

Princely Ifinedo, Mohini Singh

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The Challenges of Accelerating Connected Government and Beyond: Thailand Perspectives  pp183‑202

Asanee Kawtrakul, Intiraporn Mulasastra, Tawa Khampachua, Somchoke Ruengittinun

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Examining the Potential for Channel Shift in the UK Through Multiple Lenses  pp203‑213

Darren Mundy, Qasim Umer, Alastair Foster

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Towards an Information Strategy for Combating Identity Fraud in the Public Domain: Cases from Healthcare and Criminal Justice  pp214‑222

Marijn Plomp, Jan Grijpink

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